《Beep币扑Plan B第七期:躺赚行情,还踏空?你和“财富自...

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链圈网 发表于 2020-2-21 14:37:22 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式

主题:躺赚行情,还踏空?你和“财富自由”差点剧透

时间:2月20日,10:00

分享嘉宾:The Crypto Dog,推特知名分析师

主持人:小喵,Beep币扑创始人、喵懂区块链发起人

Plan B:Beep重磅打造的一档原生大V对话区块链大咖的线上AMA节目

导语:是不是总觉得踩不准行情,抄底抄在半山腰,一旦抛光他就张?开年躺赚行情都踏空,是你吗?是你吗?说的就是你!怎么办?Beep币扑重磅打造的线上对话币圈大咖AMA-Plan B第七期邀请推特行情预测大V The Crypto Dog 给你来场行情剧透,不要再错过吃肉的机会!

问题一:您最初是怎么知道⽐特币或者区块链?并且决定投⾝其中的呢?什么

吸引了你?

As we all know Dog has over 176,000 fans on twitter which is actually a big amount of fans for a crypto influencer. Let’s just rewind the time a little bit, How do you know blockchain or bitcoin and finally decided to get into this business ? What draws you into it ?

答:当我在高中发现比特币时,我还是个书呆子。那是2011年,我喜欢电子游戏,喜欢编码,喜欢浏览糟糕的网站,喜欢用Photoshop设计东西。我的家庭负担不起太多,但有一件事我妈妈确保我们有一台台式电脑,可以上网。所以,在没有太多其他事情可做的情况下,我基本上是在互联网上长大的。我一路上碰到比特币是很自然的。

我攒了几个暑假的零工零钱来造我梦想中的电脑。使用Radeon6970,我开采了50个BTC区块。当然,我几乎都以每枚10美元或更少的价格卖掉了。我有部分没有便宜卖出是因为13年的时候遭遇了Mot Gox门头沟时间。但没关系,我肯定也会早在1万美金之前卖出去了。我第一次买比特币是因为帮父母充电费而赚得的额外收入。谢谢妈妈。

作为一名贫困大学生,我在2015年把一点助学贷款花在了比特币上(虽然不多,但它让我重新回到了游戏中)。在接下来的几年里,我继续一边到处买比特币,一边专心读书。

直到2016年底,它才再次变得令人兴奋。当比特币开始攀升至1000美元时,我知道我们将达到历史最高点甚至更高点。就在那时,我开始把所有额外的时间都花在阅读有关比特币交易的所有资料上。

I was a nerd in high school when I discovered Bitcoin. It was 2011, I loved video games, coding, spinning up crappy websites, and designing things in Photoshop. My family couldn’t afford much, but one thing my mom made sure we had was a desktop computer with an internet connection. So, with not a whole lot else to do, I pretty much grew up on the internet. It was only natural that I’d bump into Bitcoin along the way.

I saved several summers’ worth of odd job spare change to build my dream computer. Using a Radeon 6970, I mined a few 50 BTC blocks. Of course, I sold almost all of them for $10 or less per coin. What I didn’t sell for cheap got goxxed in 2013. That was okay though, I probably would have sold long before $10k. So, my first experience with Bitcoin was pumping the electric bill as an adolescent side income. Thanks mom.

As a poor college student, I spent a little bit of my student loan into Bitcoin in 2015 (not much, but it got me back in the game). I continued to buy here and there for the coming years, sitting on it while I focused on school.

It wasn’t until late 2016 that it became really exciting again. When Bitcoin started climbing back to $1000, I knew we were going to all time highs and beyond. That’s when I started spending all of my extra hours reading everything I could about trading Bitcoin.


问题二:我本想着这周早点约你做采访的,那个时候⽐特币刚⼤跌,⼤家都⾮常恐慌。本来昨天我写的问题是“现在来看⾏情已经接近恢复,我还是想跟你确认⼀下这⼀波是否意味着⽐特币将起飞驶向全新⾼点了?” 但是早上一起来发现又砸下去了,你怎么看现在的行情?

I meant to invite you earlier for the AMA because back then, everyone seemed to be terrified about the big drop of bitcoin. And actually I was ganna ask you “it seemed to recover now and it will start to take off”, but crypto world is crazy, ot drops hard today again… So what’s your perspective towards to the bitcoin market now?

答:在这一点上,我相信熊市的低点已经得到证实。我们已经进入牛市趋势,这将使我们回到2万美元及以上。黄金十字是这种趋势变化的有利证明。我很乐意看到比特币在更长时间内保持低位,因为我想买更多,但恐怕我们可能没有更多的时间。请尽可能将比特币保持在10000以下!

投资比特币的最佳策略是按美元成本平均买入并持有,现在是一个长期买入比特币的难以置信的时机。每月拿出一点你能负担得起的钱,从现在起存个几年。

At this point I’m confident the lows of the bear market are confirmed. We have entered the bullish trend that will take us back to $20k and beyond. The golden cross is a healthy confirmation of this trend change. I would gladly see Bitcoin rest lower for a longer time, as I want to buy more, but I’m afraid we may not have much more time. Please, keep Bitcoin below 10,000 as long as possible!

The best tactic for investing in Bitcoin is to dollar cost average buy and hold, and now is an incredible time to be buying Bitcoin for long term. Put a little money in each month that you can afford, hold it for years from now.


问题三:你认为会在减半前还是后达到20,000的点呢?

How do you see that the 20k would be beofre the halving or after ?

答:减半后。如果在减半前出现,我会很惊讶的。

After. I would be very surprised to see new all time highs before.


问题3.1:似乎全社区的⼈都达成⼀种共识:就是⽐特币会在5⽉减半前达到⽬标⾼峰,然后减半后⼤跌,最后在2021~2022年之间再迎来⼤⽜市,你觉得是会按照剧本⾛还是会有惊喜?

It seems people have this consensus that bitcoin will hit the target before May and drop hard after halving and then start climbing in 2021~2022. Do you believe it will follow it or surprise us ?

答:实际上,我认为在减半后,我们将看到最大的增长。市场可能会让我们感到惊讶,但我希望在今年第三季度到第四季度末实现最大的增长。

I actually think we will see the most growth after the halving, not before. The markets may surprise me, but I am looking for the most growth towards the end of this year, Q3-Q4.


问题3.2:什么时候会有新高点呢?

When will be the new high time?

答:我认为不会早于这个夏天。理想状况的话,价格会在很长一段时间保持低迷。但在年底前会有新高,大概秋天或冬天。

No sooner than the summer I would expect. Ideally price remains low for longer. But, I can see new highs before year end - this Fall/Winter. It would not surprise me.


问题四:在做价格预测的时候,你⼀般参考什么指标?初学者又经常掉⼊的陷阱是什么?

What kind of indicators or index you would refer to for price prediction ? What’s the most common pitfalls beginning investor may fall into ?

答:相对于许多指标,我更愿意阅读纯价格走势。也就是说,我非常喜欢动态的平均指数(如黄金十字)来确认长期趋势。

对于新投资者来说,最常见的陷阱是经常换不同的头寸。

traders购买XRP,然后看到ETH涨起来,所以他们在低价出售XRP然后高价购买ETH。然后ETH跌了,他们再次出售,重新购买XRP。

大家需要放慢点。为你的交易制定一个有针对性的计划。使用风险管理对你的交易理念指定明确的标准。

不要抓住跌的不放。迅速减少失败,寻找新的投资,不要把投资拖归零。

不要对山寨币有感情输入,要灵活些,随时准备退出,向前看。

I am more comfortable reading pure price action, as opposed to many indicators. That being said, I am a big fan of moving average indicators (like the golden cross) to confirm long-term trends.

The most common pitfalls for new investors are FOMO’ing into different positions often.

Traders will buy XRP and then see ETH pumping, so they sell XRP bottom and buy ETH top. Then ETH tanks and they sell again to re-buy XRP.

Slow down. Have a targeted plan for your trades. Use risk management have clear invalidation criteria for your trade idea.

Do not hold onto losing trades. Cut losers quick and look for new set ups. Don’t bag-hold an investment to 0.

Don’t become emotionally invested in an altcoin. Be fluid, be ready to exit and move on.


问题五:近期有分析师表⽰以太坊和瑞波的⾛势都⽐⽐特币强劲,你怎么看?当⽐特币价格创新⾼的时候你觉得以太坊和瑞波会是什么价格?

Analysts say ethereum and ripple seemed to be stronger than bitcoin right now. What price would you expect about them when bitcoin hits all time high ?

答:我同意这些分析师的看法。我认为今年将再次成为以太坊的一年,我们将看到比特币的主导地位继续下降。DeFi有许多令人兴奋的发展,将为山寨币的复苏提供强有力的支撑。由于市场高度相关,我们将看到以太坊以外的其他山寨币,如XRP,也会大放异彩。就我个人而言,我一直在投资和交易其他协议,我相信这些协议有很大的增长空间,包括Tezos(XTZ)和Algorand(ALGO)。Chainlink(LINK)是另一个表现强劲的山寨币,它已经并可能继续提供长期的机会。

I agree with these analysts. I think this will be again the year of Ethereum and we will see Bitcoin dominance continue to fall. There are a lot of exciting developments across DeFi that will provide a powerful narrative for altcoin resurgence. As the markets are highly correlated, we will see other altcoins outside of Ethereum, like XRP, also shine. Personally I have been investing and trading in other protocols that I believe have a lot of room for growth including Tezos (XTZ) and Algorand (ALGO). Chainlink (LINK) is another strong performing altcoin that has and may continue to provide long opportunities.


问题六:去年到今年衍生品市场逐渐增加,各大交易所也都开了期货,大体量资金想要获利的模式和以往不同,例如:以前只能现货拉高出货,现在在合约上来回收割就可以了。你怎么看这个问题?

The time has been changed, many exchanges strated to trade futures/options. compare with pump up the price and reduce the stock at the previou time, those big money can get profits by making futures, is there any possible that the spot price of BTC can beyond the historical high level? and why?

答:我认为衍生品不会阻止期货的价格发现。

流动性和交易工具的增加对整个生态系统是积极的,对比特币的潜在稀缺性没有影响。

仅仅2100万份的期货合约是不会改变现货价格的。不过,我确实认为,我们将看到衍生品交易量持续增长的趋势。我预计,在未来1-2年内,加密衍生品的总交易量将增长10倍。

我非常看好加密衍生品,一直在花大量时间和精力与第一家实物交割的比特币期货交易所CoinFLEX合作。

它们类似于BAKKT,在合同结算时提供比特币的实物交割,但对用户是否在其平台上进行交易不做严格的要求。CoinFLEX的BTC期货交易费用也最低

I do not believe derivatives prevent future price discovery.

Increased liquidity and trading vehicles is positive for the ecosystem as a whole, and has no effect on the underlying scarcity of Bitcoin.

There will only ever be 21m - futures contracts do not change spot math.

I do think we will see a continued trend of increased volume across derivatives, however. I expect overall derivatives volume in crypto to increase 10x over the next 1-2 years.

I am very bullish on crypto derivatives and have been spending a lot of my time and energy working with the first physically delivered Bitcoin futures exchange - CoinFLEX.

They are similar to BAKKT and provide physical delivery of Bitcoin at contract settlement, but do not require stringent requirements to trade on their platform.

CoinFLEX also has the lowest fees on BTC futures trading…


问题6.1:你怎么看像FTX和币安这样的平台?

How do you think of other platforms like ftx or binance ?

答:我非常喜欢Binance的现货交易——我几乎所有的现货交易都是在那里进行的。

我尊重CZ和其他队员。我很高兴去年可以在新加坡见到他和何一。

衍生品战争正在升温,每个人都在参与其中。

去年我和Sam在香港度过了一段时间,我也对他们深表敬意,我很想看到Alameda发展FTX。

I am a big fan of Binance for spot trading - I do almost all of my spot trading there.

I have respect for CZ and rest of the team. I had a great time meeting him and HeYi in Singapore last year.

The derivatives wars are heating up and everyone is getting involved.

I spent a little time with Sam in Hong Kong last year and I also hold deep respect for them and am curious to watch as Alameda develops FTX.


问题七:近期Fcoin交易所宣布停运并宣布了7000~13000BTC的亏空,作为圈内⽼炮,你觉得什么样的交易所有活下去的潜质?有⼀些特征吗?

In terms of exchanges, Fcoin exchange, once a flame in 2018, went down several days ago and claimed to be in

debt with over 7,000 to 13,000 BTCs. Meanwhile, Binance announced a system maintenance last night. How do you think of exchanges keeping troubled lately ? As an OG in this market, what kind of exchanges you think will most likely to survive? Any particular qualities ?

答:这不是什么新鲜事。总会有长期的思考者建立可持续发展的企业,就像币安一样,但你也总会有人希望快速致富。尽管加大了监管力度,但我们仍处于加密技术的早期“蛮荒西部”阶段。我不得不说,在中国政府正忙于处理与肺炎疫情有关情况的时候,张健在Fcoin上“取消赎回权”是很聪明的。如果有时间退出骗局,那就是现在。如果这件事发生在去年10月或是11月,我想他将面临更多的审查。

那些将长期发展的交易所不仅是发展迅猛和有前瞻思考的,而且也是与社区走的进且经常互动的。

There is nothing new here. There will always be long-term thinkers that build sustainable business that last, like Binance, and there will always be those who are looking to get rich quick. Despite increased regulatory engagement, we are still very much in the early, “Wild West” stage of crypto. I have to say, it was clever for Zhang Jian to “foreclose” on Fcoin at this time when the Chinese government is busy handling the situation with COVID-19. If there was a time to exit scam, it is now. If this happened last October November, I think he would be facing much more scrutiny.

Exchanges that will last are the ones that are not only moving fast and thinking ahead, but are also close to and engaged with their community.


问题八:另一件也挺火的事件是,Voice刚刚发布了Beta测试版,有⼈认为这不过是另⼀版本的Steemit,结局也不会砸出什么⽔花来,你怎么看?以及你怎么看去中⼼化社交媒体尤其在这⽅⾯有Jack Dorswy的倡导?

Another hot-debated event is that Voice released its Beta test this week and some may claim it’s just like another version of Steemit and may has the same ending as it. What’s your opinion and how do you see decentralized social media especially with Jack Dorsey’s advocate?

答:我认为这是一个很难攻克的问题,我怀疑丹·拉里默能否在这个舞台上取得成功。社交媒体的所有价值都取决于网络效应——一个平台需要用户。在社交媒体中使用区块链必须是无摩擦的才是可行的,但即使是无摩擦的区块链应用也不足以获取价值。该平台必须为机载用户提供优于传统竞争对手的优点,比如攻克推特、微博等并非简单的举措。

I think this is a very difficult space to tackle and I am skeptical of Dan Larimer’s ability to succeed in this arena. All of the value in social media rests on network effect - a platform needs users. The use of blockchain in social media must be frictionless to be viable, but even a frictionless blockchain application is not enough to capture value. The platform has to provide merit above traditional competitors to onboard users. Tackling Twitter, Weibo, etc., is no simple feat.


问题8.1:你有关注行业内的具体细分领域/用例嘛?

What kind of blocckain use cases you are looking into?

答:现在我对Defi最兴奋。一切都还很早,而且还在试验阶段——正如我们在BZX闪电贷款危机中看到的那样。

但每天我都会发现一个新的项目似乎在推动DeFi的发展。

就在昨天,我和来自Amber AI的TianTian讨论了他们正在开发的一个新项目:www.keeperdao.com。 结合了有趣的游戏理论和DeFi套利,值得关注。

Right now I am most excited about DeFi. Everything is still very early and experimental - as we saw with the BZX flash loan crisis.

But everyday I find out about a new project that seems to be pushing the DeFi space forward.

Just yesterday I was talking with TianTian from Amber AI about a new project they’re developing: www.keeperdao.com

It’s an interesting take on game theory and DeFi arbitrage, worth keeping an eye on them.


问题九:2020你有什么规划?

What’s your plan for 2020 ?

答:我有好几项业务,包括加密行业内的,也有行业外得。我喜欢交易和投资我感兴趣的项目,但我相信多样化的收入来源是很重要的。在我开始全日制加密货币工作之前,我在一个个博士学位课程中专业地学习了药剂学。我建立了一个初创公司,是关于通过营养补充剂和促食欲素(脑维生素)改善健康生活的。目前,我们支持国际发货,但只有英文在线材料。https://shop.trybetterbrand.com/bettermind

我与香港的加速器合作,专注于市场营销和分销。

我与一家加速器紧密合作,该加速器专注于电子竞技、风险投资、健康和健康领域的新兴产业,当然还有区块链。我与他们共同创建了我的健康和健康初创公司,我正在指导他们的区块链工作。我们正在将我们的区块链服务扩展到亚洲,并建立一个中国孵化器,将西方项目带到东方,帮助提供资金、品牌和设计、代币经济、营销战略和社区建设等方面的服务。今年我要搬到亚洲,大部分时间都在香港、上海和洛杉矶之间。

当然,除了创业和交易之外,今年我每个月都会买比特币!

I have several businesses I am working on both inside and outside of crypto. I love to trade and invest in projects that are interesting to me, but I believe it’s important to diversify income streams. Before I started working in cryptocurrency full-time, I studied pharmacy and pharmaceutics professionally in a doctorate program. I built a start-up around better, healthy living through supplements and nootropics (brain vitamins). Currently we ship internationally, but only have online materials in English. https://shop.trybetterbrand.com/bettermind

I am partnering with an accelerator in Hong Kong to focus on marketing and distribution.

I work very closely with an accelerator focused on emerging industries across esports, venture capital, health and wellness, and of course blockchain. I co-founded my health and wellness startup with them and I am directing their blockchain efforts. We are expanding our blockchain services into Asia and building a Chinese incubator to bring Western projects to the East, helping with services across funding, branding and design, tokenomy, marketing strategy and community building, and so on. I am moving to Asia this year and will be splitting most of my time between Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Los Angeles.

And of course, outside of entrepreneurial pursuits and trading, I will be buying Bitcoin every month this year!


快问快答:

问:你曾经对数字货币失望过吗?有没有想过退圈?

Have you ever been disappointed in crypto and thought about leaving ?

答:我确实有很多次不知道我是否做了正确的决定。

我离开了我的博士学位课程,放弃了我在六位数薪酬的药剂学职业生涯并且在2018年all in加密行业。

2018年很难。但长久来说,我相信比特币和区块链技术并且坚信这里是有机会的。我决定留在这里,穿越熊市。我很开心我这样做了

There have definitely been times I didn’t know if I was making the right decision.

I left my doctorate program and my opportunity at six-figure career in pharmaceutics to go all in crypto in 2018…

2018 was such a rough year. But I believed in Bitcoin and Blockchain long term and knew there was opportunity here. I decided to stay the course and muscle through the bear market. I am very glad I did.


问:你最尊敬的圈内⼈⼠和圈外⼈⼠是?

Who is your most respected people in crypto world and non-crypto world?

答:在加密世界,一定是中本聪了。强大的他建立了这一切,然后消失,让比特币真正去中心化。

还有Ross Ulbricht。他是一个很有争议的人物——他建造了丝绸之路。但这是比特币和分散式区块链技术的第一个广泛使用案例。不管我们是否认同他创造的自由市场,我们一定都认同他在推动比特币进入现实世界方面做了很多贡献。

至于非加密行业的。我只能说我花费了太多时间在行业内,以至于我现在根本想不出非行业内的人了。

In crypto world: Haha of course I have to say Satoshi. Powerful of him to build this all and then disappear to allow Bitcoin to be truly decentralized.

I also have to shout out Ross Ulbricht. He is a very controversial figure - he built the Silk Road. But this was the very first widespread use case for Bitcoin and a decentralized Blockchain technology.

Whether or not we agree with the free market he created, we can all agree he did a lot to push Bitcoin into real world use.

In the non crypto world… I have spent too much time now in crypto

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